The Nightmare Before Christmas you are my sunshine shirt

My partner Bill Gurley has said that in venture it’s not enough to be “consensus correct” — that’s essentially an index fund and won’t outperform the baseline market — you have to be non-consensus correct. If you really want to create “alpha” as a venture investor, you have to be willing to entertain a bit of crazy. The “crazy good” ideas usually come down to three important factors. First, is there an untapped market or unmet need that the idea connects within an organic way, and can you show evidence of momentum? Second, is the idea suitable to sustain a business? Venture capitalists invest in companies, not products or feature improvements. Companies have to be able to make money, and great companies have to be able to make lots of money, ideally with defensible moats, economies of scale, and network effects. Third, can the founders organize a team to execute the idea in a really great product or service? Ideas are worthless without proper execution. I work with a lot of inventors and entrepreneurs who are still at the idea stage. Very pre-investment.


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